Bolton 2–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

J. Elmander 86'

M. Taylor 40'

12/26/2010

Premier League · Round 19Reebok Stadium (Bolton)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bolton60%

×Draw23%

West Brom18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.85

Bolton

1.79

West Brom

0.85

Bolton creates 111% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 81 away

2.00

creates per match

0.83

0.88

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bolton

2.00

West Brom

0.83

allows per match

Bolton

0.88

West Brom

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

82%

Bolton or West Brom

77%

Draw or West Brom

40%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

34%

West Brom wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

83%

Bolton 2+ goals

53%

Bolton 3+ goals

26%

West Brom 1+ goals

57%

West Brom 2+ goals

21%

West Brom 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

77%

West Brom (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 2.00 + West Brom defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

West Brom attack 0.83 + Bolton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bolton scores more

60%

level

23%

West Brom scores more

18%

Bolton at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Taylor↳ Chung-Yong Lee

64'

S. Ricketts← G. Steinsson

70'

I. Miller← J. Morrison

76'

M. Davies← F. Muamba

80'

I. Klasnic← Chung-Yong Lee

85'

S. Cox← Y. Mulumbu

86'

J. Elmander

Bolton

West

1

30

4

36

33

7

▼

Morrison

21

▼

5

11

17

24

22

2

▼

12

5

4

7

⚽

Taylor

8

Holden

6

▼

Muamba

27

A

▼

Lee

9

⚽

Elmander

14

Davies

64'▲S. Ricketts←▼G. Steinsson

76'▲M. Davies←▼F. Muamba

80'▲I. Klasnic←▼Chung-Yong Lee

Bolton substitutes

18Ricketts16Davies17Klasnic1Bogdán10Petrov19Rodrigo20Blake

70'▲I. Miller←▼J. Morrison

85'▲S. Cox←▼Y. Mulumbu

West Brom substitutes

10Miller31Cox13Myhill20Shorey6Ibáñez12Reid8Barnes