Bolton 0–2 West Brom: Result & Stats | Championship

Bolton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

S. Field 75'

J. Rodriguez 19'

1/21/2019

Championship · Round 28University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolton34%

×Draw26%

West Brom39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.36

Bolton

1.25

West Brom

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

1.76

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bolton

1.14

West Brom

0.96

allows per match

Bolton

1.76

West Brom

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

61%

Bolton or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

66%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

15%

West Brom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

71%

Bolton 2+ goals

36%

Bolton 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

74%

West Brom 2+ goals

39%

West Brom 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

47%

West Brom (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 0.96 + Bolton defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bolton scores more

34%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

39%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Rodriguez

West Brom · F

8.4

Match Events

19'

J. Rodriguez↳ C. Dawson

26'

38'

45'

45'

69'

W. Buckley← L. Murphy

69'

J. Magennis← C. Donaldson

73'

Gareth Barry

75'

S. Field↳ J. Rodriguez

82'

J. Pritchard← C. Noone

85'

B. Sako← H. Robson-Kanu

90+3'

T. Adarabioyo← R. Harper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonWest

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots12

10Corners5

16Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target2

7Off Target7

0Blocked3

8Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

326Total Passes372

226Accurate Passes273

69%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0