West Brom 2–1 Bolton: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bolton

S. Long 56'

J. Thomas 16'

I. Klasnic 21' (pen)

11/19/2011

Premier League · Round 12The Hawthorns (West Bromwich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

West Brom26%

×Draw24%

Bolton50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.71

West Brom

1.18

Bolton

1.71

Bolton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 9 away

1.14

creates per match

1.89

1.52

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

West Brom

1.14

Bolton

1.89

allows per match

West Brom

1.52

Bolton

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

50%

West Brom or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

74%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Bolton wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Bolton 1+ goals

82%

Bolton 2+ goals

51%

Bolton 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

35%

Bolton (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.14 + Bolton defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bolton attack 1.89 + West Brom defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Brom scores more

26%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

50%

Bolton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Thomas↳ Z. Gera

21'

I. KlasnicPenalty

56'

S. Long↳ N. Shorey

69'

M. Petrov← C. Eagles

70'

D. N'Gog← K. Davies

80'

G. Dorrans← J. Thomas

81'

G. Kakuta← F. Muamba

90+1'

S. Cox← Y. Mulumbu

West

Bolton

22

5

31

4

39

7

▼

Eagles

19

Reo-Coker

16

Davies

6

A

▼

Muamba

17

⚽

Klasnic

14

▼

Davies

1

Foster

3

Olsson

20

A

Shorey

23

McAuley

12

Reid

14

⚽

▼

Thomas

7

Morrison

21

▼

Mulumbu

22

A

Gera

11

Brunt

9

⚽

Long

80'▲G. Dorrans←▼J. Thomas

90+1'▲S. Cox←▼Y. Mulumbu

West Brom substitutes

17Dorrans31Cox5Tchoyi13Fülöp25Dawson28Jones32Fortuné

69'▲M. Petrov←▼C. Eagles

70'▲D. N'Gog←▼K. Davies

81'▲G. Kakuta←▼F. Muamba

Bolton substitutes

10Petrov24N'Gog28Kakuta1Bogdán9Sanli12Knight21Pratley