Bolton 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Bolton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

B. McKay 15'

11/10/2018

Championship · Round 17University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolton38%

×Draw26%

Swansea36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.31

Bolton

1.34

Swansea

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

0.87

1.76

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bolton

1.14

Swansea

0.87

allows per match

Bolton

1.76

Swansea

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

64%

Bolton or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

17%

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

74%

Bolton 2+ goals

39%

Bolton 3+ goals

15%

Swansea 1+ goals

73%

Swansea 2+ goals

38%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

51%

Swansea (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.14 + Swansea defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Swansea attack 0.87 + Bolton defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more

38%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

36%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Williams

Bolton · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

35'

62'

67'

68'

68'

J. Magennis← C. Donaldson

76'

80'

81'

83'

84'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonSwansea

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots10

2Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target2

8Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

382Total Passes510

285Accurate Passes418

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1