Bolton 1–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Premier League

Bolton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Swansea

C. Eagles 14'

S. Sinclair 6'

4/21/2012

Premier League · Round 35Reebok Stadium (Bolton)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bolton58%

×Draw23%

Swansea20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.97

Bolton

1.84

Swansea

0.97

Bolton creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 74 away

2.00

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bolton

2.00

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Bolton

1.00

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

80%

Bolton or Swansea

77%

Draw or Swansea

42%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

33%

Swansea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

84%

Bolton 2+ goals

55%

Bolton 3+ goals

28%

Swansea 1+ goals

62%

Swansea 2+ goals

25%

Swansea 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

75%

Swansea (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 2.00 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Swansea attack 0.93 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bolton scores more

58%

level

23%

Swansea scores more

20%

Bolton at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

S. Sinclair↳ L. Britton

14'

C. Eagles↳ M. Petrov

29'

L. Moore← N. Dyer

65'

D. N'Gog← R. Miyaichi

79'

L. Lita← D. Graham

80'

I. Klasnic← K. Davies

90+5'

J. Vela← M. Davies

Bolton

Swansea

1

3

2

22

4

12

▼

Dyer

11

⚽

Sinclair

7

A

Britton

24

Allen

42

Sigurdsso

10

▼

1

2

31

18

32

7

⚽

Eagles

19

Reo-Coker

10

A

Petrov

16

▼

Davies

14

▼

Davies

30

▼

Miyaichi

65'▲D. N'Gog←▼R. Miyaichi

80'▲I. Klasnic←▼K. Davies

90+5'▲J. Vela←▼M. Davies

Bolton substitutes

24N'Gog17Klasnic37Vela3Alonso12Knight22Jääskeläinen29Sordell

29'▲L. Moore←▼N. Dyer

79'▲L. Lita←▼D. Graham

Swansea substitutes

19Moore18Lita15Routledge16Monk17McEachran20Bessone25Tremmel