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Bolton vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
M. Gillesphey 43'
3/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 38University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bolton35%
×Draw23%
Plymouth42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.54
Plymouth
1.69

Plymouth creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.85
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Bolton
1.38
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Bolton+0.46scores more
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
58%
Bolton or Plymouth
77%
Draw or Plymouth
65%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
17%
Plymouth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
45%
Bolton 3+ goals
20%
Plymouth 1+ goals
82%
Plymouth 2+ goals
50%
Plymouth 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
46%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.85 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bolton scores more
35%
level
23%
Plymouth scores more
42%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. CooperPlymouthPlymouth · G
8.2

Match Events

43'
M. Gillesphey↳ J. Houghton
59'
K. Sadlier← G. Johnston
69'
Panutche Camará← R. Broom
72'
A. Bakayoko← J. Böðvarsson
72'
E. Kachunga← D. Charles
81'
L. Jephcott← N. Ennis
81'
S. Sessegnon← C. Grant

Possession

55%Bolton

Shots

14Bolton

Pass accuracy

52%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonPlymouth
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots9
6Corners5
11Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots9
5On Target6
4Off Target1
5Blocked2
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
465Total Passes374
377Accurate Passes283
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Offsides3

League One: Bolton 0–1 Plymouth

Plymouth beat Bolton 1-0 in League One on March 12, 2022.

Goals: M. Gillesphey (43').

Bolton controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.