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Bolton vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
15:00
Norwich
Norwich
2/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
41%
Norwich
model favours
33%26%41%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton33%
×Draw26%
Norwich41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.23
Norwich
1.41

Norwich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 138 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Norwich
1.43

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Norwich
1.30

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
59%
Bolton or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
67%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
14%
Norwich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
35%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%
Norwich 1+ goals
76%
Norwich 2+ goals
41%
Norwich 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
44%
Norwich (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Norwich defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Norwich attack 1.43 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bolton scores more
33%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
41%

Norwich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
Norwich
Balanced
41%PossessionBiggest gap55%
66%Pass accuracy82%
9.5Shots12.4
—xG1.35
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonNorwich

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Bolton
1
Draws
3
Norwich
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
0–42–30–02–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WLWWW
Norwich
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton vs Norwich — Match Preview

Bolton face Norwich on February 20, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolton host Norwich at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.