Bolton 1–3 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League One

Bolton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Carlisle

10/7/2023

League One · Round 12Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton54%

×Draw24%

Carlisle22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.98

Bolton

1.71

Carlisle

0.98

Bolton creates 74% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 23 away

1.73

creates per match

0.87

1.09

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Bolton

1.73

Carlisle

0.87

allows per match

Bolton

1.09

Carlisle

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

78%

Bolton or Carlisle

76%

Draw or Carlisle

46%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

30%

Carlisle wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

82%

Bolton 2+ goals

51%

Bolton 3+ goals

24%

Carlisle 1+ goals

62%

Carlisle 2+ goals

26%

Carlisle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

72%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bolton scores more

54%

level

24%

Carlisle scores more

22%

Bolton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff