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Bolton vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carlisle
Carlisle
4/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 43University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton42%
×Draw28%
Carlisle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.27
Carlisle
1.02

Bolton creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 133 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Carlisle
1.05

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Carlisle
1.36

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
70%
Bolton or Carlisle
72%
Draw or Carlisle
58%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
19%
Carlisle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Carlisle 1+ goals
64%
Carlisle 2+ goals
27%
Carlisle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
59%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Carlisle attack 1.05 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bolton scores more
42%
level
28%
Carlisle scores more
30%

Bolton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Bolton 1–0 Carlisle

Bolton beat Carlisle 1-0 in League Two on April 20, 2021.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.