Bolton 2–3 Barnsley: Result & Stats | League One

Bolton

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Barnsley

5/7/2024

League One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsToughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Bolton42%

×Draw25%

Barnsley34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

Bolton

1.52

Barnsley

1.34

Bolton creates 13% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 118 away

1.73

creates per match

1.59

1.09

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bolton

1.73

Barnsley

1.59

allows per match

Bolton

1.09

Barnsley

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

66%

Bolton or Barnsley

75%

Draw or Barnsley

58%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

20%

Barnsley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

78%

Bolton 2+ goals

45%

Bolton 3+ goals

20%

Barnsley 1+ goals

74%

Barnsley 2+ goals

39%

Barnsley 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

55%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bolton scores more

42%

level

25%

Barnsley scores more

34%

Bolton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff