Barnsley 4–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Barnsley

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bolton

4/12/2025

League One · Round 42Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley30%

×Draw24%

Bolton46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.65

Barnsley

1.30

Bolton

1.65

Bolton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

1.24

2.06

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Barnsley

1.22

Bolton

1.24

allows per match

Barnsley

2.06

Bolton

1.38

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more

Bolton-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

54%

Barnsley or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

70%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

13%

Bolton wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

73%

Barnsley 2+ goals

37%

Barnsley 3+ goals

14%

Bolton 1+ goals

81%

Bolton 2+ goals

49%

Bolton 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

40%

Bolton (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.38 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bolton attack 1.24 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barnsley scores more

30%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

46%

Bolton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff