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Bollullos vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Fidel 54'
Pedro Chacón 51'
Pinto 11'
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bollullos50%
×Draw26%
La Palma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.49
La Palma
0.94

Bollullos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 48 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
76%
Bollullos or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
50%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
25%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
77%
Bollullos 2+ goals
44%
Bollullos 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
61%
La Palma 2+ goals
24%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
68%
La Palma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

La Palma attack 0.88 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bollullos scores more
50%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
24%

Bollullos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Pinto
46'
Daniel Raposo← Lebri
51'
Pedro Chacón
54'
Fidel
65'
Álvaro Prieto← Diego Luís
65'
Carlos Rojas← Pinto
73'
David González← Fidel
73'
David Díaz← C. Ramírez
77'
Manolo Suárez← Álvaro Fernández
77'
Pedro Juan← Rafa Navarro
87'
Antolín← Miguel Clavería
89'
Leo Merino← Sergio Chama
Bollullos
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
▼
Navarro
Pana
Pana
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Diego Luís
▼
Luís
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Moisés Aguilar
Aguilar
José Cortés
Cortés
Diego Vargas
Vargas
Pinto
⚽
▼
Pinto
J. Berardo
Berardo
Lebri
▼
Lebri
Juan Becken
Becken
Brenes
Brenes
Fidel
⚽
▼
Fidel
Tanque
Tanque
Sotero
Sotero
C. Ramírez
▼
Ramírez
Sergio Chama
▼
Chama
Pedro Chacón
⚽
Chacón
Miguel Clavería
▼
Clavería
Antonio Calle
Manager: Antonio Calle
46'▲Daniel Raposo←▼Lebri
73'▲David González←▼Fidel
73'▲David Díaz←▼C. Ramírez
87'▲Antolín←▼Miguel Clavería
89'▲Leo Merino←▼Sergio Chama

Bollullos substitutes

RaposoGonzálezDíazAntolínMerino
Jaime
Manager: Jaime
65'▲Álvaro Prieto←▼Diego Luís
65'▲Carlos Rojas←▼Pinto
77'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Álvaro Fernández
77'▲Pedro Juan←▼Rafa Navarro

La Palma substitutes

PrietoRojasSuárezJuan

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Bollullos 2–1 La Palma

Bollullos beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 15, 2024.

Goals: Pinto (11'), Pedro Chacón (51'), Fidel (54').

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.