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Bollullos vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Lucas Álvarez 89'
Andrés Pavón 56'
Rafa Navarro 47'
C. Ramírez 44' (OG)
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bollullos50%
×Draw26%
La Palma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.49
La Palma
0.94

Bollullos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 48 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
76%
Bollullos or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
50%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
25%
La Palma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
77%
Bollullos 2+ goals
44%
Bollullos 3+ goals
19%
La Palma 1+ goals
61%
La Palma 2+ goals
24%
La Palma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
68%
La Palma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

La Palma attack 0.88 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bollullos scores more
50%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
24%

Bollullos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
C. RamírezOwn goal
46'
Andrés Pérez← Tanque
46'
Alberto González← Lucho
47'
Rafa Navarro
56'
Andrés Pavón
61'
C. Took Essome← Sotero
62'
Juan Benítez← Juan Aguilar
73'
Y. Nwatsock← Álex Sánchez
73'
Gabi← Omar
79'
Kiki← C. Ramírez
86'
Daniel Raposo← K. Gómez
86'
Bouba Ba← Pedro Juan
86'
Manolo Suárez← Zaca
89'
Lucas Álvarez
Bollullos
La
Julen Fernández
Fernández
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
⚽
Navarro
Juan Aguilar
▼
Aguilar
Pedro Juan
▼
Juan
Andrés Pavón
⚽
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Omar
▼
Omar
Álvaro Fernández
Fernández
Álex Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Zaca
▼
Zaca
Vichi Martín
Martín
Pepe García
García
Tanque
▼
Tanque
Sotero
▼
Sotero
C. Ramírez
🥅
▼
Ramírez
Antonio Clavijo
Clavijo
Sergio Chama
Chama
Lucho
▼
Lucho
Álex Rubio
Rubio
K. Gómez
▼
Gómez
Lucas Álvarez
⚽
Álvarez
Mario Rodríguez
Manager: Mario Rodríguez
46'▲Andrés Pérez←▼Tanque
46'▲Alberto González←▼Lucho
61'▲C. Took Essome←▼Sotero
79'▲Kiki←▼C. Ramírez
86'▲Daniel Raposo←▼K. Gómez

Bollullos substitutes

PérezGonzálezEssomeKikiRaposo
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
62'▲Juan Benítez←▼Juan Aguilar
73'▲Y. Nwatsock←▼Álex Sánchez
73'▲Gabi←▼Omar
86'▲Bouba Ba←▼Pedro Juan
86'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Zaca

La Palma substitutes

BenítezNwatsockGabiBaSuárez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Bollullos 1–3 La Palma

La Palma beat Bollullos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: C. Ramírez (44' o.g.), Rafa Navarro (47'), Andrés Pavón (56'), Lucas Álvarez (89').

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.