Bolívar 2–2 Atlético Palmaflor: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Atlético Palmaflor

7/28/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bolívar71%

×Draw17%

Atlético Palmaflor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchAtlético Palmaflor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

0.91

Bolívar

2.49

Atlético Palmaflor

0.91

Bolívar creates 174% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 66 away

2.93

creates per match

0.97

0.84

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Bolívar

2.93

Atlético Palmaflor

0.97

allows per match

Bolívar

0.84

Atlético Palmaflor

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

88%

Bolívar or Atlético Palmaflor

83%

Draw or Atlético Palmaflor

29%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

49%

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

92%

Bolívar 2+ goals

71%

Bolívar 3+ goals

45%

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

86%

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.84 · 130 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.93 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.49

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Bolívar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bolívar scores more

71%

level

17%

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

12%

Bolívar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff