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Bolívar vs Atlético Palmaflor — Primera División 2019

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
12/1/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bolívar71%
×Draw17%
Atlético Palmaflor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.49
Atlético Palmaflor
0.91

Bolívar creates 174% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.93
Atlético Palmaflor
0.97

allows per match

Bolívar
0.84
Atlético Palmaflor
2.05

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
88%
Bolívar or Atlético Palmaflor
83%
Draw or Atlético Palmaflor
29%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
49%
Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
92%
Bolívar 2+ goals
71%
Bolívar 3+ goals
45%
Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
86%
Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.84 · 130 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.93 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.49

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Bolívar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bolívar scores more
71%
level
17%
Atlético Palmaflor scores more
12%

Bolívar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Atlético Palmaflor

Bolívar beat Atlético Palmaflor 3-1 in Primera División on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.