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Bolívar vs Atletico-MG — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
D. Romero 88' (pen)
Robson Matheus 48'
Alexsander 45'
Vitor Hugo 45'
9/17/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bolívar53%
×Draw24%
Atletico-MG22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.70
Atletico-MG
1.01

Bolívar creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.11
Atletico-MG
1.14

allows per match

Bolívar
0.89
Atletico-MG
1.29

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Atletico-MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
78%
Bolívar or Atletico-MG
76%
Draw or Atletico-MG
47%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
29%
Atletico-MG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
82%
Bolívar 2+ goals
51%
Bolívar 3+ goals
24%
Atletico-MG 1+ goals
64%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
27%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
70%
Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.11 + Atletico-MG defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Atletico-MG attack 1.14 + Bolívar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bolívar scores more
53%
level
24%
Atletico-MG scores more
22%

Bolívar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Robson MatheusBolívarBolívar · M
8.2

Match Events

22'
Natanael
36'
Caio Paulista← Cuello
45'
Alexsander↳ Gustavo Scarpa
45'
Vitor Hugo↳ Gustavo Scarpa
48'
Robson Matheus↳ C. A. Melgar
55'
Ignacio GariglioCard upgrade
57'
Ignacio Gariglio
61'
Gustavo Scarpa
61'
Igor Gomes← Alexsander
61'
Hulk← Gustavo Scarpa
62'
L. Paz← C. A. Melgar
62'
D. Romero← J. Velasquez
73'
Junior Alonso
76'
Reinier← Rony
76'
Fausto Vera← Natanael
77'
D. Batallini← J. Sagredo
88'
S. Echeverria← D. Catano
88'
D. RomeroPenalty

Possession

Bolívar: 77Atletico-MG: 2377%Bolívar

Shots

Bolívar: 17Atletico-MG: 717Bolívar

Pass accuracy

Bolívar: 89Atletico-MG: 6458%Bolívar

Statistics

BolívarAtletico-MG
Overview
77%Possession23%
17Total Shots7
7Corners2
8Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots7
7On Target4
9Off Target2
1Blocked1
8Inside Box3
9Outside Box4
Passing
77%Possession23%
528Total Passes162
472Accurate Passes103
89%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Atletico-MG

Bolívar and Atletico-MG drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 17, 2025.

Goals: Alexsander (45'), Vitor Hugo (45'), Robson Matheus (48'), D. Romero (88' pen).

Bolívar controlled possession (77%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.