Atletico-MG 1–0 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bolívar

Bernard 90'

9/24/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsArena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico-MG63%

×Draw21%

Bolívar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.81

Atletico-MG

1.92

Bolívar

0.81

Atletico-MG creates 137% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

2.08

creates per match

1.13

0.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Atletico-MG

2.08

Bolívar

1.13

allows per match

Atletico-MG

0.50

Bolívar

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

85%

Atletico-MG or Bolívar

79%

Draw or Bolívar

37%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

38%

Bolívar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

85%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

57%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

30%

Bolívar 1+ goals

56%

Bolívar 2+ goals

19%

Bolívar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

81%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Bolívar away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.08 + Bolívar defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Bolívar attack 1.13 + Atletico-MG defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

63%

level

21%

Bolívar scores more

15%

Atletico-MG at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

D. Batallini

Atletico-MG

7.3

Match Events

19'

Bernard← Alexsander

20'

Igor Gomes

63'

Rony← Reinier

74'

Caio Paulista← Guilherme Arana

74'

Fausto Vera← I. Roman

74'

Biel← Hulk

79'

BielPenalty cancelled

80'

Daniel Cataño

82'

Fausto Vera

83'

Pato Rodriguez← D. Batallini

84'

88'

88'

90+3'

90'

Bernard↳ Gustavo Scarpa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGBolívar

Overview

61%Possession39%

7Total Shots7

1Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots7

1On Target2

3Off Target3

3Blocked2

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

484Total Passes308

395Accurate Passes222

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2