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Bolívar vs Atletico Avila FC — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Atletico Avila FC
Atletico Avila FC
Unknown 27', 19'
Unknown 45', 45'
4/5/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bolívar47%
×Draw30%
Atletico Avila FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.19
Atletico Avila FC
0.74

Bolívar creates 61% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Atletico Avila FC
0.57

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Atletico Avila FC
1.00

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Atletico Avila FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Atletico Avila FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
77%
Bolívar or Atletico Avila FC
70%
Draw or Atletico Avila FC
53%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
21%
Atletico Avila FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
70%
Bolívar 2+ goals
33%
Bolívar 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Avila FC 1+ goals
52%
Atletico Avila FC 2+ goals
17%
Atletico Avila FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Avila FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Atletico Avila FC away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Atletico Avila FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atletico Avila FC attack 0.57 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolívar scores more
47%
level
30%
Atletico Avila FC scores more
23%

Bolívar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
27'
45'
45'
59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Atletico Avila FC

Bolívar and Atletico Avila FC drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 5, 2026.

Goals: ? (19', 27', 45', 45').