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Atletico Avila FC vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Avila FC
Atletico Avila FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
5/31/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atletico Avila FC39%
×Draw33%
Bolívar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Avila FC
0.97
Bolívar
0.77

Atletico Avila FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

creates per match

Atletico Avila FC
0.57
Bolívar
0.67

allows per match

Atletico Avila FC
0.86
Bolívar
1.36

finishing

Atletico Avila FC+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Avila FC ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Atletico Avila FC or draw
72%
Atletico Avila FC or Bolívar
67%
Draw or Bolívar
61%

Winning margin

Atletico Avila FC wins by 2+
15%
Bolívar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico Avila FC 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Avila FC 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Avila FC 3+ goals
7%
Bolívar 1+ goals
54%
Bolívar 2+ goals
18%
Bolívar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Avila FC (draw refunded)
58%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Avila FC at home — creates 0.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Avila FC attack 0.57 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.97

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Atletico Avila FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Avila FC scores more
39%
level
33%
Bolívar scores more
28%

Atletico Avila FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Avila FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Avila FC vs Bolívar

Atletico Avila FC and Bolívar drew 0-0 in Segunda División on May 31, 2026.