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Bolívar vs Academia Anzoátegui — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
8/27/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 8CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bolívar41%
×Draw29%
Academia Anzoátegui30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.21
Academia Anzoátegui
0.98

Bolívar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Academia Anzoátegui
1.05

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Academia Anzoátegui
1.05

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Academia Anzoátegui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
70%
Bolívar or Academia Anzoátegui
71%
Draw or Academia Anzoátegui
59%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
18%
Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
70%
Bolívar 2+ goals
34%
Bolívar 3+ goals
12%
Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
62%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
26%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
58%
Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Academia Anzoátegui away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.05 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bolívar scores more
41%
level
29%
Academia Anzoátegui scores more
30%

Bolívar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 0–0 Academia Anzoátegui

Bolívar and Academia Anzoátegui drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.