Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Academia Anzoátegui vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
6/9/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 13Barcelona Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui51%
×Draw29%
Bolívar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
1.29
Bolívar
0.68

Academia Anzoátegui creates 90% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.23
Bolívar
0.67

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
0.68
Bolívar
1.36

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
80%
Academia Anzoátegui or Bolívar
71%
Draw or Bolívar
49%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
24%
Bolívar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
72%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
37%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
14%
Bolívar 1+ goals
49%
Bolívar 2+ goals
15%
Bolívar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
72%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
51%
level
29%
Bolívar scores more
20%

Academia Anzoátegui at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Anzoátegui vs Bolívar

Academia Anzoátegui beat Bolívar 2-1 in Segunda División on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Barcelona Sport Center in Barcelona.