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Bokelj vs Sutjeska — First League 2025

Bokelj
Bokelj
Preview
18:00
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
8/9/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion pod Vrmcem
Big match
46%
Sutjeska
model favours
29%25%46%

Bokelj score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bokelj29%
×Draw25%
Sutjeska46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bokelj
1.15
Sutjeska
1.52

Sutjeska creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bokelj
1.25
Sutjeska
1.48

allows per match

Bokelj
1.55
Sutjeska
1.04

finishing

Bokelj+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bokelj ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bokelj or draw
54%
Bokelj or Sutjeska
75%
Draw or Sutjeska
71%

Winning margin

Bokelj wins by 2+
11%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bokelj 1+ goals
68%
Bokelj 2+ goals
32%
Bokelj 3+ goals
11%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
78%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
45%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bokelj (draw refunded)
39%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bokelj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bokelj attack 1.25 + Sutjeska defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sutjeska attack 1.48 + Bokelj defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bokelj scores more
29%
level
25%
Sutjeska scores more
46%

Sutjeska at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sutjeska have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 25% of Bokelj’s matches
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Bokelj’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bokelj
WWDWL
Sutjeska
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bokelj vs Sutjeska — Match Preview

Bokelj face Sutjeska on August 9, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bokelj host Sutjeska at Stadion pod Vrmcem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.