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Bohemians 1905 II vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
8/31/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 4Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bohemians 1905 II46%
×Draw22%
Dukla Praha II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905 II
1.95
Dukla Praha II
1.59

Bohemians 1905 II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905 II
2.21
Dukla Praha II
1.69

allows per match

Bohemians 1905 II
1.49
Dukla Praha II
1.69

finishing

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 II ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 II or draw
68%
Bohemians 1905 II or Dukla Praha II
78%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
54%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
26%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
86%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
58%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
31%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
80%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
59%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 II at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 II attack 2.21 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Dukla Praha II attack 1.69 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bohemians 1905 II scores more
46%
level
22%
Dukla Praha II scores more
32%

Bohemians 1905 II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 II vs Dukla Praha II

Bohemians 1905 II and Dukla Praha II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves in Prague.