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Bogota FC vs Alianza Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Bogota FC
Bogota FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
3/16/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bogota FC38%
×Draw26%
Alianza Valledupar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bogota FC
1.34
Alianza Valledupar
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bogota FC
1.00
Alianza Valledupar
0.84

allows per match

Bogota FC
1.70
Alianza Valledupar
1.68

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw
65%
Bogota FC or Alianza Valledupar
74%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
62%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+
17%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals
74%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
39%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
15%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)
52%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.00 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.84 + Bogota FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bogota FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
35%

Bogota FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Bogota FC 2–2 Alianza Valledupar

Bogota FC and Alianza Valledupar drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on March 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..