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Alianza Valledupar vs Bogota FC — Copa Colombia 2019

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
3/29/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alianza Valledupar63%
×Draw22%
Bogota FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.80
Bogota FC
0.72

Alianza Valledupar creates 150% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
2.00
Bogota FC
0.50

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.95
Bogota FC
1.60

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
86%
Alianza Valledupar or Bogota FC
78%
Draw or Bogota FC
37%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
37%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
83%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
54%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
27%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
51%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
16%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
81%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Bogota FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bogota FC attack 0.50 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
63%
level
22%
Bogota FC scores more
14%

Alianza Valledupar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Bogota FC

Alianza Valledupar beat Bogota FC 1-0 in Copa Colombia on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.