Bofoakwe Tano 0–1 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

Bofoakwe Tano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Berekum Chelsea

6/9/2024

Premier League · Round 33Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano43%

×Draw31%

Berekum Chelsea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bofoakwe TanoExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.77

Bofoakwe Tano

1.11

Berekum Chelsea

0.77

Bofoakwe Tano creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

0.65

creates per match

0.73

0.82

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.65

Berekum Chelsea

0.73

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.82

Berekum Chelsea

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw

75%

Bofoakwe Tano or Berekum Chelsea

69%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

57%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

18%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

67%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

30%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

10%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

54%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

18%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

63%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.11

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.73 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

43%

level

31%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

25%

Bofoakwe Tano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff