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Berekum Chelsea vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
12/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berekum Chelsea55%
×Draw29%
Bofoakwe Tano16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berekum Chelsea
1.31
Bofoakwe Tano
0.58

Berekum Chelsea creates 126% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea
1.32
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea
0.58
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw
84%
Berekum Chelsea or Bofoakwe Tano
71%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
45%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+
26%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals
73%
Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals
38%
Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals
14%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
44%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
12%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)
77%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.58 · 110 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more
55%
level
29%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
16%

Berekum Chelsea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berekum Chelsea vs Bofoakwe Tano

Berekum Chelsea and Bofoakwe Tano drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.