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Bofoakwe Tano vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bechem United
Bechem United
4/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano42%
×Draw31%
Bechem United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bofoakwe Tano
1.10
Bechem United
0.82

Bofoakwe Tano creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.65
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.82
Bechem United
1.55

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw
73%
Bofoakwe Tano or Bechem United
69%
Draw or Bechem United
58%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
17%
Bechem United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
67%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
30%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
10%
Bechem United 1+ goals
56%
Bechem United 2+ goals
20%
Bechem United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
61%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more
42%
level
31%
Bechem United scores more
27%

Bofoakwe Tano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bofoakwe Tano 1–1 Bechem United

Bofoakwe Tano and Bechem United drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.