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Bechem United vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
A. Okrah 8'
S. Owusu 9'
11/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bechem United57%
×Draw29%
Bofoakwe Tano14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.33
Bofoakwe Tano
0.50

Bechem United creates 166% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
86%
Bechem United or Bofoakwe Tano
71%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
43%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
28%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
74%
Bechem United 2+ goals
38%
Bechem United 3+ goals
15%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
39%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
9%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
80%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bechem United scores more
57%
level
29%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
14%

Bechem United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Okrah
9'
S. Owusu
34'
C. Duodu
35'
N. Ibrahim
54'
66'
E. Ankrah
70'
A. K. Appau← A. K. Appau
81'
S. O. Akoto← S. O. Akoto
81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bechem United vs Bofoakwe Tano

Bechem United and Bofoakwe Tano drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Okrah (8'), S. Owusu (9').

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.