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Bofoakwe Tano vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
N. Ibrahim 5'
D. Awuni 70'
10/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano45%
×Draw32%
Accra Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bofoakwe Tano
1.11
Accra Lions
0.70

Bofoakwe Tano creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.65
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano
0.82
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw
77%
Bofoakwe Tano or Accra Lions
68%
Draw or Accra Lions
55%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
19%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
67%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
30%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
10%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
50%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
16%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
66%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.11

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more
45%
level
32%
Accra Lions scores more
23%

Bofoakwe Tano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Ibrahim
35'
S. Mohammed
54'
E. Dzigbah← E. Dzigbah
54'
R. Adomako Boateng← R. Adomako Boateng
54'
B. Kesse← B. Kesse
55'
S. Obilitey← S. Obilitey
60'
A. K. Appau
68'
M. Yahaya← M. Yahaya
70'
D. Awuni
76'
S. Owusu← S. Owusu
82'
C. Ansah
83'
D. Blessing← D. Blessing

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bofoakwe Tano vs Accra Lions

Bofoakwe Tano and Accra Lions drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 27, 2023.

Goals: N. Ibrahim (5'), D. Awuni (70').

The match was played at Coronation Park in Sunyani.