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Accra Lions vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
S. Seidu 39'
4/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Accra Lions51%
×Draw29%
Bofoakwe Tano20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.31
Bofoakwe Tano
0.71

Accra Lions creates 85% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
80%
Accra Lions or Bofoakwe Tano
71%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
49%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
24%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
73%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
38%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
14%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
51%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
16%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
72%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Accra Lions scores more
51%
level
29%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
20%

Accra Lions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
31'
39'
S. Seidu
53'
K. Oppong
58'
D. Aboagye← D. Aboagye
58'
S. O. Akoto← S. O. Akoto
71'
D. Oduro← D. Oduro
71'
F. Asante← F. Asante
83'
R. Adomako Boateng← R. Adomako Boateng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Bofoakwe Tano

Accra Lions beat Bofoakwe Tano 1-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Seidu (39').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.