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Bodrum FK vs Ankaragücü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
12/6/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMuğla Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bodrum FK45%
×Draw23%
Ankaragücü32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodrum FK
1.78
Ankaragücü
1.45

Bodrum FK creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bodrum FK
1.78
Ankaragücü
1.33

allows per match

Bodrum FK
1.56
Ankaragücü
1.78

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par
Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Ankaragücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw
68%
Bodrum FK or Ankaragücü
77%
Draw or Ankaragücü
55%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+
24%
Ankaragücü wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals
83%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
53%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
26%
Ankaragücü 1+ goals
77%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
42%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
59%
Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.78 + Ankaragücü defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ankaragücü attack 1.33 + Bodrum FK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bodrum FK scores more
45%
level
23%
Ankaragücü scores more
32%

Bodrum FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bodrum FK 4–2 Ankaragücü

Bodrum FK beat Ankaragücü 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2018.

The match was played at Muğla Atatürk Stadyumu in Muğla.