Ankaragücü 3–2 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bodrum FK

12/18/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundOstim Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ankaragücü50%

×Draw22%

Bodrum FK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.45

Ankaragücü

2.00

Bodrum FK

1.45

Ankaragücü creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

2.39

creates per match

2.00

0.89

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Bodrum FK

2.00

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Bodrum FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

72%

Ankaragücü or Bodrum FK

78%

Draw or Bodrum FK

50%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

29%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

86%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

59%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

32%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

77%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

42%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

64%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

50%

level

22%

Bodrum FK scores more

28%

Ankaragücü at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff