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Bodrum FK vs Altay — 1. Lig 2018

Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Altay
Altay
3/5/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Bodrum İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bodrum FK53%
×Draw24%
Altay22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodrum FK
1.66
Altay
0.97

Bodrum FK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bodrum FK
1.83
Altay
1.27

allows per match

Bodrum FK
0.66
Altay
1.48

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw
78%
Bodrum FK or Altay
76%
Draw or Altay
47%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+
29%
Altay wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals
81%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
49%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
23%
Altay 1+ goals
62%
Altay 2+ goals
25%
Altay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
71%
Altay (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Altay away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Altay defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Altay attack 1.27 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bodrum FK scores more
53%
level
24%
Altay scores more
22%

Bodrum FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodrum FK vs Altay

Bodrum FK beat Altay 2-0 in 1. Lig on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bodrum İlçe Stadı in Bodrum.