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Altay vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Altay
Altay
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
9/11/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 5Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Altay35%
×Draw27%
Bodrum FK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.23
Bodrum FK
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

creates per match

Altay
1.38
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Altay
1.28
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Altay or draw
62%
Altay or Bodrum FK
73%
Draw or Bodrum FK
65%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
15%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
71%
Altay 2+ goals
35%
Altay 3+ goals
13%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
72%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
37%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
48%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.38 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Altay defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Altay scores more
35%
level
27%
Bodrum FK scores more
38%

Bodrum FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Bodrum FK

Altay beat Bodrum FK 2-0 in 1. Lig on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in İzmir.