Bodo/Glimt 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

12/3/2023

Eliteserien · Round 30Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bodo/Glimt61%

×Draw19%

Sarpsborg 08 FF20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.27

Bodo/Glimt

2.34

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.27

Bodo/Glimt creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

2.76

creates per match

1.76

0.78

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.76

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.78

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.92

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.49scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

80%

Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF

81%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

39%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

39%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

90%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

67%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

41%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

72%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

36%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

75%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.78 · 16 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.76 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.34

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

61%

level

19%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

20%

Bodo/Glimt at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff