Bodo/Glimt 3–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

Philip Zinckernagel 83'

Ulrik Saltnes 70'

Hakon Evjen 30'

6/30/2019

Eliteserien · Round 13Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Bodo/Glimt70%

×Draw17%

ODD Ballklubb12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.89

Bodo/Glimt

2.38

ODD Ballklubb

0.89

Bodo/Glimt creates 167% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 18 away

2.55

creates per match

0.98

0.80

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.55

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.80

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.42scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

88%

Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb

83%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

30%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

47%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

91%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

68%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

42%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

59%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

22%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

85%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.80 · 38 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.55 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.38

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

70%

level

17%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

12%

Bodo/Glimt at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Morten Agnes Konradsen

Bodo/Glimt · M

8.0

Match Events

30'

Hakon Evjen↳ Amor Layouni

38'

Fredrik Jensen

61'

Philip Zinckernagel← Geir Andre Herrem

62'

Fredrik Nordkvelle← Vebjørn Hoff

68'

Amor Layouni

70'

Ulrik Saltnes↳ Morten Agnes Konradsen

73'

Tobias Lauritsen← Joshua Kitolano

82'

Jens Petter Hauge← Amor Layouni

82'

Filip Moller Delaveris← Sander Svendsen

83'

Philip Zinckernagel↳ Jens Petter Hauge

86'

Amadou Konate← Hakon Evjen

90'

Elbasan Rashani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtODD

Overview

45%Possession45%

15Total Shots15

5Corners5

15Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots15

7On Target7

4Off Target4

4Blocked4

10Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession45%

424Total Passes424

343Accurate Passes343

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2