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Boca Unidos vs AH Zapla — Torneo Federal A 2018

Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AH Zapla
AH Zapla
10/7/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 6Estadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Boca Unidos62%
×Draw24%
AH Zapla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Unidos
1.63
AH Zapla
0.62

Boca Unidos creates 163% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 12 away

creates per match

Boca Unidos
1.43
AH Zapla
0.33

allows per match

Boca Unidos
0.91
AH Zapla
1.83

finishing

Boca Unidos+0.00on par
AH Zapla+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Unidos ↓

AH Zapla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boca Unidos or draw
86%
Boca Unidos or AH Zapla
76%
Draw or AH Zapla
38%

Winning margin

Boca Unidos wins by 2+
34%
AH Zapla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Boca Unidos 1+ goals
80%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
48%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
22%
AH Zapla 1+ goals
46%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
13%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
82%
AH Zapla (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Unidos at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.91 · 106 matches

AH Zapla away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Unidos attack 1.43 + AH Zapla defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

AH Zapla attack 0.33 + Boca Unidos defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Boca Unidos scores more
62%
level
24%
AH Zapla scores more
14%

Boca Unidos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Boca Unidos 1–0 AH Zapla

Boca Unidos beat AH Zapla 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes).