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AH Zapla vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018

AH Zapla
AH Zapla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
11/24/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 15Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AH Zapla45%
×Draw29%
Boca Unidos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AH Zapla
1.23
Boca Unidos
0.86

AH Zapla creates 43% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 105 away

creates per match

AH Zapla
0.92
Boca Unidos
0.89

allows per match

AH Zapla
0.83
Boca Unidos
1.54

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw
74%
AH Zapla or Boca Unidos
71%
Draw or Boca Unidos
55%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+
20%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals
71%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
35%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
13%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
58%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
21%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)
63%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.92 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + AH Zapla defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AH Zapla scores more
45%
level
29%
Boca Unidos scores more
26%

AH Zapla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AH Zapla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: AH Zapla 1–2 Boca Unidos

Boca Unidos beat AH Zapla 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy).