Boca Juniors 3–0 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Boca Juniors

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcelona SC

A. Herrera 90'

S. Ascacibar 81'

L. Di Lollo 39'

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Boca Juniors60%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.48

Boca Juniors

1.41

Barcelona SC

0.48

Boca Juniors creates 194% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.44

creates per match

0.77

0.20

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.44

Barcelona SC

0.77

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.20

Barcelona SC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

87%

Boca Juniors or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

40%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

31%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

76%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

41%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

17%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

38%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

8%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

83%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.20 · 25 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.44 + Barcelona SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Barcelona SC attack 0.77 + Boca Juniors defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

60%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

13%

Boca Juniors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Paredes

Boca Juniors · M

9.0

Match Events

1'

A. Bareiro

7'

J. Intriago

12'

L. Brey← A. Marchesin

39'

L. Di Lollo↳ L. Blanco

46'

H. Villalba← J. Intriago

46'

B. Castillo← L. Cano

52'

J. R. Quinonez Ruiz

61'

J. Mina← G. Vallecilla

61'

S. Nunez← D. Benedetto

68'

M. Parrales← L. Sosa

74'

E. Zeballos← Miguel Merentiel

81'

S. Ascacibar↳ L. Blanco

86'

A. Herrera← T. Aranda

86'

M. Gimenez← A. Bareiro

86'

A. Velasco← L. Paredes

90'

A. Herrera↳ A. Velasco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaBarcelona

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots6

2.21Expected Goals (xG)0.40

5Corners4

9Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots6

11On Target1

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

13Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

505Total Passes294

437Accurate Passes219

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

-0.49Goals Prevented-0.49

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1