Barcelona SC 1–0 Boca Juniors: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Boca Juniors

C. Garcés 62'

5/5/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group C - 3Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Barcelona SC42%

×Draw30%

Boca Juniors28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.87

Barcelona SC

1.14

Boca Juniors

0.87

Barcelona SC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.43

creates per match

0.64

1.10

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.43

Boca Juniors

0.64

allows per match

Barcelona SC

1.10

Boca Juniors

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

72%

Barcelona SC or Boca Juniors

70%

Draw or Boca Juniors

58%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

18%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

68%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

32%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

11%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

58%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

22%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

60%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.43 + Boca Juniors defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.14

Boca Juniors attack 0.64 + Barcelona SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

42%

level

30%

Boca Juniors scores more

28%

Barcelona SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Pineida

Barcelona SC · M

8.0

Match Events

31'

A. Varela

33'

B. D. Castillo Segura

51'

L. Lopez

57'

C. Medina← A. Varela

62'

C. Garcés↳ M. Pineida

75'

L. Quiñónez← M. Hoyos

75'

M. Carcelén← N. Molina

79'

G. Maroni← A. Obando

79'

C. Tevez← C. Pavón

80'

E. Zeballos← L. Jara

83'

S. López← L. Martínez

88'

G. Mastriani← C. Garcés

88'

M. Oyola← D. Díaz

90+4'

C. Tevez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaBoca

Overview

41%Possession59%

5Total Shots7

3Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots7

2On Target1

1Off Target4

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

416Total Passes574

330Accurate Passes487

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Boca Juniors

Barcelona SC beat Boca Juniors 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 5, 2021.

Goals: C. Garcés (62').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Barcelona SC vs Boca Juniors — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Boca Juniors