Boavista SC 1–1 Botafogo: Result & Stats

Boavista SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Botafogo

Zé Vitor 38'

Kayke 78'

2/15/2025

League #624 · Championship - 10Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boavista SC20%

×Draw25%

Botafogo55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boavista SCExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.57

Boavista SC

0.83

Botafogo

1.57

Botafogo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

0.91

creates per match

1.50

1.64

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Boavista SC

0.91

Botafogo

1.50

allows per match

Boavista SC

1.64

Botafogo

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw

45%

Boavista SC or Botafogo

75%

Draw or Botafogo

80%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+

6%

Botafogo wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals

56%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

20%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

5%

Botafogo 1+ goals

79%

Botafogo 2+ goals

46%

Botafogo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

27%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Botafogo away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 0.91 + Botafogo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Botafogo attack 1.50 + Boavista SC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Boavista SC scores more

20%

level

25%

Botafogo scores more

55%

Botafogo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

32'

38'

50'

52'

63'

63'

65'

Fellipe Resende← Abner Vinícius

74'

Victor Yan← Leandrinho

74'

Lucas Brune← Matheus Alessandro

76'

Mateo Ponte

77'

Vitinho Vaz← Kauê

78'

Kayke↳ Cuiabano

81'

Diego Loureiro

84'

Lucas Cafe

85'

Gabriel Conceição← Marcos Paulo

85'

Luisinho← Zé Vitor

86'

Kauã Branco← David Ricardo

87'

Kauan Toledo

90+3'

Rwan Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoavistaBotafogo

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots19

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.61

3Corners5

12Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots19

4On Target8

4Off Target5

4Blocked6

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box12

Passing

44%Possession56%

296Total Passes426

228Accurate Passes353

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls18

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1