Boavista SC 0–4 Botafogo: Result & Stats

Boavista SC

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Botafogo

Yarlen 90+1'

Júnior Santos 89'

Tiquinho Soares 70', 15'

3/26/2024

League #624 · Taça Rio - FinalEstádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Boavista SC20%

×Draw25%

Botafogo55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boavista SCExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.57

Boavista SC

0.83

Botafogo

1.57

Botafogo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

0.91

creates per match

1.50

1.64

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Boavista SC

0.91

Botafogo

1.50

allows per match

Boavista SC

1.64

Botafogo

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista SC+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista SC ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Boavista SC or draw

45%

Boavista SC or Botafogo

75%

Draw or Botafogo

80%

Winning margin

Boavista SC wins by 2+

6%

Botafogo wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Boavista SC 1+ goals

56%

Boavista SC 2+ goals

20%

Boavista SC 3+ goals

5%

Botafogo 1+ goals

79%

Botafogo 2+ goals

46%

Botafogo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Boavista SC (draw refunded)

27%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista SC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Botafogo away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista SC attack 0.91 + Botafogo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Botafogo attack 1.50 + Boavista SC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Boavista SC scores more

20%

level

25%

Botafogo scores more

55%

Botafogo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Tiquinho Soares↳ Júnior Santos

20'

Junior SantosGoal Disallowed - offside

24'

Rai

37'

Pabo Maldini

37'

A. Barboza

46'

Erick Flores← Jefferson

63'

Yarlen← Raí

63'

Hugo← Marçal

70'

Tiquinho Soares↳ Júnior Santos

77'

Erick Flores

78'

Rafael← D. Suárez

78'

Breno← Kauê

79'

Abner Vinícius← Mateus Ludke

84'

Tiquinho Soares

84'

Gabriel Conceição← Matheus Lucas

84'

Janderson← Tiquinho Soares

89'

Júnior Santos↳ Yarlen

90+1'

Yarlen↳ Rafael

Boavista

Botafogo

1

Fernández

22

▼

Suárez

21

▼

20

3

26

17

75

▼

Raí

25

▼

Kauê

9

⚽2

▼

Soares

11

⚽A

1

13

33

36

22

▼

20

5

8

11

99

▼

Lucas

7

▼

Jefferson

Manager: José Quadros

46'▲Erick Flores←▼Jefferson

79'▲Abner Vinícius←▼Mateus Ludke

84'▲Gabriel Conceição←▼Matheus Lucas

Boavista SC substitutes

10Flores26Vinícius23Conceição6Cardoso15Costa12Matheus2Manzoli4Mizael9Cristian14Elivelton30Alessandro

Manager: Fábio Matias

63'▲Yarlen←▼Raí

63'▲Hugo←▼Marçal

78'▲Rafael←▼D. Suárez

78'▲Breno←▼Kauê

84'▲Janderson←▼Tiquinho Soares

Botafogo substitutes

67Yarlen16Hugo2Rafael14Breno39Janderson15Bastos77Hernández6Tchê52Gabriel28Newton90Nascimento18Urso

Match Recap: Boavista SC vs Botafogo

Botafogo beat Boavista SC 4-0 in League #624 on March 26, 2024.

Goals: Tiquinho Soares (15', 70'), Júnior Santos (89'), Yarlen (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio Elcyr Resende de Mendonça in Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro.

Boavista SC vs Botafogo — League #624 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Boavista SC vs Botafogo