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Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — Liga Leumit 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
7/2/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Round - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin50%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.54
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.00

Bnei Sakhnin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.58
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.21

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.79
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.49

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
75%
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
74%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
50%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
79%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
45%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
20%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
67%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.49 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 1.58 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.21 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
50%
level
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
25%

Bnei Sakhnin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Bnei Sakhnin 3–0 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Bnei Sakhnin beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3-0 in Liga Leumit on July 2, 2020.