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Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — State Cup 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
12/19/2019State CupState Cup · 8th RoundDoha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin49%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.65
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.15

Bnei Sakhnin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.80
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
0.50

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.80
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2.50

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
73%
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
76%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
51%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
81%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
49%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
23%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.80 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 0.50 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
49%
level
24%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
27%

Bnei Sakhnin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Bnei Sakhnin 2–2 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Ramat HaSharon drew 2-2 in State Cup on December 19, 2019.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.