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Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
8/25/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 1Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin30%
×Draw26%
Beitar Jerusalem44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.13
Beitar Jerusalem
1.42

Beitar Jerusalem creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 120 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
56%
Bnei Sakhnin or Beitar Jerusalem
74%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
70%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
12%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
68%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
31%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
11%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
76%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
41%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
41%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
30%
level
26%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
44%

Beitar Jerusalem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Bnei Sakhnin 1–2 Beitar Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem beat Bnei Sakhnin 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on August 25, 2025.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.