Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem

Bnei Sakhnin

CANC

18:30

Beitar Jerusalem

2/26/2025

State Cup · Quarter-finalsBloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin14%

×Draw21%

Beitar Jerusalem65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei SakhninExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.96

Bnei Sakhnin

0.79

Beitar Jerusalem

1.96

Beitar Jerusalem creates 148% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

0.80

creates per match

2.11

1.80

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin

0.80

Beitar Jerusalem

2.11

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin

1.80

Beitar Jerusalem

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw

35%

Bnei Sakhnin or Beitar Jerusalem

79%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

86%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

4%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

55%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

19%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

5%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

86%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

58%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

18%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.80 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.11 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

14%

level

21%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

65%

Beitar Jerusalem at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff