Blumenthaler SV U19 2–3 Eintr. Norderstedt U19

Blumenthaler SV U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

R. Amadou 73' (pen)

E. Demir 56'

J. Wardius 62', 11'

D. Duah 7'

2/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1BZA Burgwallstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Blumenthaler SV U1949%

×Draw19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blumenthaler SV U19Expected goals in this matchEintr. Norderstedt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

2.21

Blumenthaler SV U19

2.69

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.21

Blumenthaler SV U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.89

creates per match

1.83

2.58

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Blumenthaler SV U19

1.89

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.83

allows per match

Blumenthaler SV U19

2.58

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blumenthaler SV U19+0.00on par

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blumenthaler SV U19 ↓

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Blumenthaler SV U19 or draw

67%

Blumenthaler SV U19 or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

81%

Draw or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

51%

Winning margin

Blumenthaler SV U19 wins by 2+

30%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Blumenthaler SV U19 1+ goals

93%

Blumenthaler SV U19 2+ goals

74%

Blumenthaler SV U19 3+ goals

49%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

65%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Blumenthaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blumenthaler SV U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blumenthaler SV U19 attack 1.89 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.69

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 1.83 + Blumenthaler SV U19 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blumenthaler SV U19 scores more

49%

level

19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

33%

Blumenthaler SV U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blumenthaler SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Duah

11'

J. Wardius

56'

E. Demir

58'

M. Hüneke← K. Casanova

58'

R. Amadou← E. Demir

62'

J. Wardius

64'

A. Diachun← O. Demchuk

64'

J. Faizy← L. Alpsoy

69'

J. Schiereck← L. Jacob

73'

R. AmadouPenalty

87'

L. Buchmüller← H. Ahrens

87'

L. Wegener← F. Kasperak

89'

B. Hartrampf← A. Seidi

Blumenthaler

Eintr.

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Demir

▼

Casanova

Manager: D. Spitzer

58'▲M. Hüneke←▼K. Casanova

58'▲R. Amadou←▼E. Demir

69'▲J. Schiereck←▼L. Jacob

87'▲L. Buchmüller←▼H. Ahrens

87'▲L. Wegener←▼F. Kasperak

Blumenthaler SV U19 substitutes

HünekeAmadouSchiereckBuchmüllerWegenerMoussalliMojen

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

64'▲A. Diachun←▼O. Demchuk

64'▲J. Faizy←▼L. Alpsoy

89'▲B. Hartrampf←▼A. Seidi

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

DiachunFaizyHartrampfPerehudovSchöningRalfsChen