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Blue Goose vs Baton Rouge LA — USL League Two 2018

Blue Goose
Blue Goose
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
6/29/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52Mayo Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Blue Goose39%
×Draw19%
Baton Rouge LA42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Goose
2.37
Baton Rouge LA
2.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Blue Goose
1.11
Baton Rouge LA
1.46

allows per match

Blue Goose
3.44
Baton Rouge LA
3.62

finishing

Blue Goose+0.00on par
Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Goose ↓

Baton Rouge LA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Blue Goose or draw
58%
Blue Goose or Baton Rouge LA
81%
Draw or Baton Rouge LA
61%

Winning margin

Blue Goose wins by 2+
22%
Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Blue Goose 1+ goals
91%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
68%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
42%
Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
91%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
70%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Blue Goose (draw refunded)
48%
Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Goose at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

Baton Rouge LA away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.37

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.46 + Blue Goose defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blue Goose scores more
39%
level
19%
Baton Rouge LA scores more
42%

Baton Rouge LA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baton Rouge LA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blue Goose vs Baton Rouge LA

Baton Rouge LA beat Blue Goose 3-2 in USL League Two on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Mayo Field in Shreveport, Louisiana.