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Baton Rouge LA vs Blue Goose — USL League Two 2018

Baton Rouge LA
Baton Rouge LA
FT
1 – 2
Blue Goose
Blue Goose
6/25/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 12LSU Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baton Rouge LA48%
×Draw18%
Blue Goose34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baton Rouge LA
2.92
Blue Goose
2.48

Baton Rouge LA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Baton Rouge LA
1.00
Blue Goose
1.11

allows per match

Baton Rouge LA
3.85
Blue Goose
4.84

finishing

Baton Rouge LA+0.00on par
Blue Goose+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baton Rouge LA ↓

Blue Goose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–24%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Baton Rouge LA or draw
66%
Baton Rouge LA or Blue Goose
82%
Draw or Blue Goose
52%

Winning margin

Baton Rouge LA wins by 2+
30%
Blue Goose wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Baton Rouge LA 1+ goals
94%
Baton Rouge LA 2+ goals
78%
Baton Rouge LA 3+ goals
55%
Blue Goose 1+ goals
92%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
70%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Baton Rouge LA (draw refunded)
58%
Blue Goose (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baton Rouge LA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

Blue Goose away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baton Rouge LA attack 1.00 + Blue Goose defence 4.84 → ÷2 → 2.92

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Baton Rouge LA defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baton Rouge LA scores more
48%
level
18%
Blue Goose scores more
34%

Baton Rouge LA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baton Rouge LA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Baton Rouge LA 1–2 Blue Goose

Blue Goose beat Baton Rouge LA 2-1 in USL League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at LSU Soccer Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.